Greed can cost you your shirt!
by: Willard Michin
The proper action when things are going well is to pay off debt and consolidate your
position. Then you will be financially strong and can go for further expansion without
fear of loosing what gains you already have. When you are not deep in debt you do not
have to worry about your creditors getting paid. Since the usual history of a business
is cyclic (boom and then every 7 years (plus or minus) bust) you can predict when it
is time to consolidate.
When the prices are "too good to be true, they are." In the two years just before
the top of the market is reached, prices are going up at very incredible rate. I
have seen real estate go up 25%, per year, right at the top. This is incredible
and I guarantee you it cannot sustain itself, at that rate. As hard as it is to
give up a profit, it is harder still to sell an investment when it is going
straight up. But, understand this is when you need to sell. If that is not what
you want to do then you need to go to plan B: pay off your debt and get ready
for the market drop.
If you are debt free you can survive the drop and then be solvent and financially
secure when the recovery comes. I would like to tell you a story of the largest
apartment owner in Hollywood.
It was 1980 when I met Nick. He owned 11 buildings at that time. He bought the
worse buildings in town. These had the best cash flow. He owned mostly brick
buildings. This was because they cost less money than stucco and wood buildings.
This lower price allowed Nick to generate higher profits. Nick would buy a
building. He then did a market study, and figured out what size apartments
and what numbers of bedrooms were generating the highest rent, per square
foot. Then he remodeled his building to get the highest price per square
foot he could. He spent over $100,000 per building to do this. He also had
to earthquake proof all of his buildings.
One of the reasons that brick buildings sold so cheaply was that they needed to be
earthquake reinforced. When Nick finished remodeling a building, it was producing
a very nice cash flow. Nick would use that cash flow to buy and remodel the next
building. This was very smart thinking. Where did Nick fall off the rails? First
he would find a great deal, while he was still in the middle of a remodeling job.
He just couldn't pass it by. He borrowed on one of his finished buildings to
get the down payment to buy the building.
Then he would borrow on a second building to get the money to remodel the new
building. Now he was remodeling two buildings at the same time. By borrowing
on two of his successful buildings, he now had to pay the loan payments on
the two new loans. The rents from the older buildings now went to the lenders
instead of to Nick's remodeling project. The new building, just bought,
didn't produce enough income to cover the new loan on it because half the
building was empty due to the remodeling. Nick now needed to keep borrowing
money to fix the buildings and pay the loan payments on the buildings that
didn't generate enough income. When a building was completed it then
supported itself very nicely.
Was Nick happy with that? No, he wanted more and more buildings. If at
any time Nick had stopped borrowing to buy new buildings, and just
finished all his buildings in remodeling, he would have been able
to catch up with himself and started expansion from a new level of
security. That was, using the buildings profits after paying all
of his loan payments to buy and remodel more buildings. Nick just
couldn't wait and consolidate his position. He had every building
he owned loaned up to the maximum value that he was able to. The
rents were more than enough to cover the payments on each individual
building. So what happened?
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